What Are The Odds YOU Get Rich? (Shocking Stats)

Your odds of winning the lottery are about 1 in 28 million. And yet, 162 million Americans bought a lottery ticket last year. I see people falling into these mental traps all the time, thinking that the only path to wealth are those one-in-a-million fast tracks. They think you have to win the lottery, go to the big leagues, or be the next Bezos.

And I mean, let’s be honest, who doesn’t secretly—or maybe not so secretly—fantasize about getting rich quickly? Imagine waking up tomorrow, checking your account, and seeing enough zeros to make your phone completely freeze up. Sounds nice, right? Unfortunately, the way it happens for most folks is not nearly as flashy.

Let’s start with winning the lottery. This is how a lot of folks, believe it or not, think it happens. And yet, you only have—are you ready for this?—a 0.00035% chance. That was five zeros, if you’re keeping count.

But why on earth are so many folks buying lottery tickets? People believe winning the lottery is the best way to get rich for several psychological reasons:

• First, it offers instant gratification. No waiting decades for compound interest to work its magic.

• Second, it requires zero skill or education, making it seem accessible to everyone, even though, as we just saw, hardly anyone actually wins.

• Third, media constantly highlights lottery winners, creating an availability bias where we overestimate our chances.

• Fourth, humans are notoriously bad at understanding probability, especially on an exponential scale like 1 in 28 million.

“Never tell me the odds” doesn’t feel that different from, say, 1 in 1,000 to our brains. Finally, the lottery lets people daydream about financial freedom without having to make any actual sacrifices or changes to their spending habits.

Not to mention, as quickly as it comes, it might go away just as fast. About a third of lottery winners end up in bankruptcy court. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, for one in three people who come into life-changing, maybe even generational, wealth to go bankrupt afterward—it’s not the golden ticket people think it is.

All right, here’s another one: what about becoming a celebrity? Your odds are 0.0021%. That’s still 1 in 4.7 million people.

This is the social media hype machine and celebrity worship at play. People overestimate their chances of becoming a celebrity for many of the same reasons as lottery winners. We’re constantly bombarded with social media influencers who “made it overnight” or celebrities who seem to have it all.

The media focuses exclusively on successful celebrities, creating a powerful survivorship bias where we only see the winners, never the millions who tried and failed. Plus, becoming famous appeals to our desire for validation and recognition.

We get it. But let’s be honest, it looks way easier than it actually is. We see the glamorous end results, but not the years of rejection, struggle, and hard work behind the scenes.

And here’s an interesting one: how about becoming an NBA player? That’s a 0.0032% chance—or 1 in 31,000.

Sports stars are heroes for a lot of people growing up, and the desire to become a professional athlete makes a ton of sense. If you play a sport—really any sport—you’re presented with a path telling you, “Hey, if you’re just good enough at this one thing, you can go pro and you’ll get rich.”

On top of that, you get scholarships, NIL money, and endorsements. And it makes sense why people would want to live their dream and make a great living doing it.

We’re not saying you shouldn’t invest time, attention, or maybe even money into your skills and your passions. But don’t count on this as your means of attaining wealth. Dial in the discipline and the behavior, because that’s the difference-maker that will ultimately translate to financial independence regardless of whether or not you become a professional athlete.

How about starting a business? You hear so much about entrepreneurship. Well, here are the odds on that: 0.05%—that’s 1 in 2,000.

Now, we get into two scenarios that are a lot more realistic, but there should still be a healthy caution when it comes to starting a business. The “hustle bro” entrepreneurs on YouTube would have you believe this is a sure thing—that just selling a $50 product 20,000 times will land you with a cool million dollars.

But starting a business takes a lot of careful planning, and a lot of folks don’t make it. According to the SBA (Small Business Administration):

• About 20% of small businesses fail within the first year.

• Around half are gone within five years.

• Over 65% fail within 10 years.

That’s not even taking into account the need to be profitable in order to sustain yourself.

We want to be crystal clear here: we’re not against entrepreneurship. In fact, as small business owners ourselves, we deeply understand the desire and effort it takes to build something from the ground up. The Money Guy Show started as a passion project, and we’ve experienced firsthand the challenges, the risk, and the immense satisfaction that comes with running a business.

Our point is simply that entrepreneurship shouldn’t be viewed primarily as a get-rich-quick scheme. The most successful businesses tend to be built by people who are solving a problem they truly care about—not just chasing dollars. That authentic passion is what helps you persist through the inevitable challenges. You have to have something beyond money driving you to make starting a business worthwhile.

And the last one: let’s talk about investing. This offers a much better chance than the others.

This is a chart of the 40-year rolling annualized returns of the S&P 500. That means looking at the average yearly investment return over every 40-year period (like 1970–2010, then 1971–2011, and so on). It shows the returns investors actually experienced if they stayed invested for 40 years.

What we see is that the average 40-year rolling return since 1970 is over 11%.

Now, I can hear it—the “inflation trolls” out there saying, “Hey, what about inflation?” Well, the average inflation-adjusted return was still almost 7.12%. You can go back all the way to the S&P 500’s inception in 1957 and see the average rolling return is 10.9% (or 6.8% inflation-adjusted).

That means if you just save and invest a portion of your income over a 40-year working career, reaching financial independence is almost inevitable. To make it even closer to a certainty, we suggest saving 25% of your gross income. By saving 25%, especially when you’re young, you can potentially replace 100% (or maybe even more) of your current income.

So, what’s the problem? No one wants to get rich slowly. Patience isn’t sexy. Nobody brags about a 10% annual return at parties. We’re hardwired for immediate rewards, not decades-long strategies. Social media constantly shows us people who “made it overnight” while conveniently leaving out all those who got left behind.

The math works, but our emotions often don’t. Fear and greed make us abandon sound long-term strategies.

The path to wealth isn’t a lottery ticket or even a viral video. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. While the odds of striking it rich through conventional get-rich-quick methods are astronomically low, building wealth through consistent investing has been proven effective for millions of ordinary people.

Think about it: a 1 in 28 million chance versus a strategy that has worked reliably for millions of people for decades. By investing consistently over time, you’re not gambling—you’re actually creating an ownership stake in true economic value.

The beauty of compound interest is that it doesn’t care about your background, your connections, or even your luck. It simply rewards patience and consistency. Warren Buffett didn’t become one of the wealthiest people in the world through lottery tickets or viral fame—he did it through disciplined investing over decades.

Remember that chart showing a 40-year rolling return? That’s not theoretical. That’s the real money that real people made by simply staying the course. The strategy works if you work the strategy.

So, while your Instagram feed might be full of overnight successes and crypto millionaires, the real wealth builders are quietly maxing out their 401(k)s, dollar-cost averaging into index funds, and letting time do the heavy lifting.

Take a page out of their book and keep building toward your great big beautiful tomorrow.