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Will 2023 be a good year to purchase a home? In this highlight, Bo and Brian take a look at the data and give some insight on why they think this year may or may not be a good year to buy a house.
Looking to buy a house soon? Check out our Home Buying Checklist deliverable. There are many factors you need to consider before buying a home, and this checklist will help you ensure all of your ducks are in a row before making a huge financial decision.
We want to talk you through how to make the decision of whether you should buy a home or wait, now that we know these are unique times. We’ll give you the information and questions you should ask. As we’ve already laid the foundation, prices have increased, interest rates are high, and some people are saying yes, go buy a home, while others are saying no, the crash is coming. Individually, we have to answer the question: should I buy a home? And if I am, is 2023 the right time to consider doing that?
During one of our content meetings, we discussed the feeling of overpaying when buying a house. One of us has bought three houses and has felt like he was overpaying every single time. However, this feeling is not reliable since the real estate market behaves differently than other investment or equity-type markets. You need to be both analytical and look at the data when making the decision.
One reason to consider buying a home is if you need a place to live. If you’re thinking about starting a family, establishing roots, or moving into the next phase of your life, it might make sense to buy a home in 2023. If you have school-aged children, relocating can be difficult since you don’t want to move them around to different school districts. However, you need to think about whether it would still be a good decision for your family even if the house’s value stays flat or even drops a little bit in the next five years. Housing is not only financial; it’s also what the family needs.
When it comes to a primary residence, we don’t think of it as an investment asset. Instead, we think of it as a used asset that we’re supposed to use and get utility out of. Ultimately, with any used asset, we shouldn’t care about the terminal value in the short term. If you buy a house now and its value goes down in five years, that shouldn’t be a problem if you’re using it as a primary residence.
Real estate markets behave differently than other investment or asset or equity-type markets, which is why it’s crucial to think about what a recovery for real estate looks like. Stock markets can have v-shaped recoveries, but real estate markets are different. We’ll cover more information and questions to consider to help you make the decision about buying a home or waiting in the next section.
Like I said, stocks are V-shaped recoveries, so I think I’m going to sound a little bit like I’m talking about both sides of my mouth because I told you if you have an immediate need, meaning you have kids that are school age, you’re going to be in the property for probably seven plus years, you sometimes have to hold your nose and just make the decision because you have an urgent need.
However, in this real estate market, where if you don’t have that urgent need, there is likely going to be a benefit to waiting to see where the data goes because there’s usually an opportunity. This is not like if you missed the opportunity this week, it’s gone next week. Typically, real estate is a much slower-moving process, and you can kind of see how the numbers develop a little bit more.
In terms of answering the question, “should I buy in 2023,” the first thing you need to do is assess your need. Do you need a home, and then you need to assess the urgency of your need. Do I need a home right now before the next school year, before the job starts, or do I have some time to see this out to see if prices come down, to see if interest rates might subside?
Another reason why you would consider buying real estate or buying a home in 2023 is that saving for a down payment right now is actually easier than it has been for the past couple of years. We’ve had people saying, “I want to save for a house. I want to build up cash.” But cash is doing nothing. Cash is doing nothing. Can I invest that? Can I do T-bills? Can I fill in the blank with the thing they want to do? And it’s been hard for people to build up that stable base to build a down payment fund. That’s gotten a little bit easier here recently.
It is interesting if we pull up the slot of what the FED funds rate is done. I mean, this is a double-edged sword. It’s a blessing and a curse. It is nice that your cash is now getting over from north of four percent getting closer to five percent, which now feels like, “Hey man, I’m actually making some money every month.” It’s encouraging when I see I have interest. But you also have to recognize when you look at this fed funds rate chart that we have where you see the affordability of housing is directly correlated. That interest rates now being over seven percent on mortgages is in direct relationship to the Federal Reserve raising rates. So this is a gift, but it’s also a curse, and that’s something that I think you have to work through.
But it does give you, while you’re in that phase where you have flexibility, at least while you’re trying to build up the down payment on the house, you’re actually going to make a little bit of money. Because I don’t think the inflationary pressure because we all always hear, “Hey, inflation was eight percent over the last year, your cash is only making now four to four and a half percent, so you’re still losing purchasing power.” Not necessarily with real estate because if housing prices are settling down a little bit while there’s this tug between people selling not realizing there’s not as many buyers, you might actually be able to build in the background not be losing that purchasing power because it’s the real estate that’s actually adjusting. That’s a win.
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